CBA data shows wage growth lifts, jobs market steady

Commonwealth Bank has reported a modest lift in wage growth in Australia alongside a steady jobs market, in a development that supports expectations of a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia on interest rates.

The bank's inaugural Wage & Labour Insights report shows wages rising faster in recent months while remaining below the peak levels seen in late 2024.

The report uses de-identified salary flows from about 400,000 customer accounts. It presents the data as an early indicator of shifts in wages and employment conditions ahead of official labour statistics.

Commonwealth Bank said its wage indicator rose 0.8 per cent over the latest quarter. The measure was up 3.2 per cent over the year.

The annual pace increased from 3.1 per cent in October. It remained below the late-2024 high of 4.1 per cent.

The data suggests a labour market that is cooling from last year's peak but still showing resilience. It also suggests that wage pressures have not disappeared.

Modest wage lift

Belinda Allen, Head of Australian Economics at Commonwealth Bank, said the wage move in November stood out against the recent trend of moderation.

"The CBA Wage Insights series shows wage growth ticked a little higher in November after recent moderation. While wages growth has still eased over the past year, the slight tick up in November is worth watching, especially when combined with recent higher-than-expected inflation prints and Q3 25 GDP data showing the Australian economy has reached its speed limit. If wages continue to strengthen, the risk of rate hikes in 2026 will rise," said Allen, Head of Australian Economics, Commonwealth Bank.

The comments point to a scenario in which the RBA faces ongoing tension between inflation control and labour-market strength. The central bank has signalled a data-dependent approach as inflation tracks back towards its target band.

The bank's findings indicate that wage growth is no longer accelerating at the pace seen during the post-pandemic rebound. They also indicate that wage gains remain enough to draw close attention from policymakers.

Labour market signal

The Wage & Labour Insights report suggests the jobs market remains stable. The flow of salaries into customer accounts indicates that employment levels have held up.

The bank did not publish a separate measure for job creation in this release. It described job growth as steady within the broader labour market.

The use of near real-time transaction data gives the bank an earlier read on trends than official labour statistics. This can highlight turning points in the cycle before they appear in the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases.

The latest figures come after a period of higher-than-expected inflation readings. The data also follow national accounts that showed the economy expanding at a limited pace.

Allen linked the wage outcome with those broader macroeconomic signals in her remarks. She highlighted the risk that stronger wage growth could feed into inflation and interest rates next year.

The bank's economists interpret the Q3 2025 GDP data as a sign that the Australian economy is operating near capacity. They view the labour market figures in that context.

Policy implications

The combination of stable employment and firmer wage growth is likely to feature in RBA deliberations in coming months. The central bank has been weighing a slower economy against persistent inflation pressures.

Market participants are watching wage outcomes as a guide for the path of interest rates through 2026. The bank's new indicator adds a high-frequency lens on that debate.

Wage growth at 3.2 per cent remains below last year's peak. It still sits above the levels seen through much of the pre-pandemic decade.

The bank's data set covers a wide cross-section of industries and income levels. It relies on internal transaction records rather than survey responses.

The figures do not reveal sector-level wage patterns in this release. They also do not separate full-time and part-time employment trends.

Economists often look for signs of softening in hiring or pay growth as early markers of a downturn. The report's indication of a resilient labour market contrasts with that scenario.

The data instead point to a period of adjustment from a very tight jobs market towards more balanced conditions. The November uptick in wages suggests that adjustment is not uniform across time.

Commonwealth Bank plans to produce regular updates of the Wage & Labour Insights series. It intends that the indicator will track wage and labour-market developments ahead of public statistical releases.