Australian online spending to rise for football finals

Adobe forecasts a rise in Australian online spending around the NFL's first regular-season game in the country and the AFL and NRL grand finals. Football merchandise traffic is expected to climb 53% above August levels across the three-week period.

The figures point to broader demand beyond team gear, with online spending on screens expected to increase 14%. Food and drink purchases are also set to rise as households and workplaces prepare to watch matches.

Adobe Digital Insights expects the NFL match to be an early trigger for spending, projecting a 20% lift in online screen spending over the opening weekend, including streaming devices, projectors and televisions, alongside a 15% rise in drinks and snacks.

Interest in American football merchandise has already been building. Australian online traffic for NFL team merchandise rose 310% year on year in August and is expected to reach 140% to 160% above August levels during the week before peaking at 400% month on month over the opening weekend.

The analysis suggests retailers could see demand spread across several categories. Beer sales are expected to rise 25% during the NFL weekend, while soft drinks are forecast to increase 10%, corn chips and dips 16%, and pizza 12%.

Consumer spending

Separate consumer research from Adobe indicates cost-of-living pressures may not significantly weaken spending tied to the football finals season. Some 73% of Australians surveyed said they did not expect to reduce their spending on footy finals this year.

Within that group, 45% said their spending would not change, 23% said they would spend the same but be more selective, and 5% expected to spend more. Two in five respondents said they expected to spend more than AUD $150 celebrating, while 31% said they would spend more if their team reached a final.

Attendance remains a premium option for some fans. Adobe found 27% would be willing to spend more than AUD $1,000 to attend in person if their team made a final.

Watching at home appears to be the dominant format. The survey found 55% of people planned either to host or attend a watch party in someone's home, helping explain why food and drink ranked as the spending category consumers were least willing to cut, with 78% calling it important.

NFL appeal

The data also points to growing interest in the NFL in Australia, especially among younger consumers. Adobe found 36% of Australians already follow the league, rising to 58% among people aged 16 to 35.

A further 24% said they do not currently follow the NFL but planned to watch the Melbourne game, suggesting the code is drawing casual viewers as well as established fans.

Rather than displacing existing loyalties, the new code may be adding to them. Adobe found 39% of football fans agreed that the arrival of another football code adds to their fandom rather than competing with it.

That trend matters for retailers because it broadens the period in which sports-related spending may remain elevated. Adobe linked the coming run of matches to earlier football moments, including State of Origin and Socceroos World Cup games, when spending on streaming devices rose by as much as 74% and beer sales increased 34%.

Digital behaviour

The report also highlights changes in how Australians shop and engage with sport online. AI-driven retail traffic in July rose 108% year on year, indicating more shoppers are using AI tools for product discovery, comparisons, recommendations and purchases.

Natural search remains the largest single source of retail traffic at 45% of visits, according to Adobe's data. Social networks posted the fastest annual growth at 22%, though they still accounted for only 5% of total traffic.

Younger consumers are more influenced by those channels when making footy finals purchases. Among people under 35, 50% said social media platforms shaped their decisions, compared with a 24% average across all respondents. The survey found 44% of under-35s were influenced by social media creators or influencers, against a 21% average, while 38% cited AI assistants or chatbots, compared with an 18% average.

Second-screen activity was also strongest among younger fans. Adobe found 37% of under-35s post on social media while watching a game and 40% message friends during matches.

The figures are based on Adobe Analytics data tracking hundreds of millions of transactions and retail site visits by Australian consumers each month, alongside a survey of more than 1,000 people in Australia aged 16 and over.

"The nation is about to have a big month of football celebrations, and our data shows Australians are willing to spend around moments like this, from merch to TVs and watch parties. In American football, the difference between a touchdown and a turnover can quite literally be blades of grass or tips of toes. The same margins apply to brands eager to capitalise on these high-stakes, high-velocity events. Those that can capture demand and convert attention with timely promotions, targeted outreach, and frictionless paths to purchase will be the biggest winners when the final whistles blow," said Vivek Pandya, Director of Adobe Digital Insights at Adobe.