Forrester: AI spending slows as tech leaders face scrutiny in 2026
Forrester has outlined its 2026 predictions for artificial intelligence and technology leadership, forecasting a year marked by pragmatic approaches to AI and increased demands on technology executives as enterprises prioritise performance and risk management.
The latest forecast expects a shift away from the enthusiasm that characterised previous years, with AI strategies in 2026 focusing more on governance, operational integration, and cautious investment, rather than on experimentation or hype-driven deployments.
AI investment slowdown
According to Forrester, organisations are encountering difficulties in linking AI investment to clear financial outcomes. Fewer than a third of businesses have managed to connect their AI initiatives directly to changes in profit and loss, leading to a climate of greater scrutiny from senior financial decision-makers.
The report predicts that chief financial officers (CFOs) will become more involved in AI-related decisions, resulting in slower production deployments and a reduction in experimental projects. As a direct consequence, 25% of planned AI spending is anticipated to be delayed until 2027.
Sudha Maheshwari, VP research director at Forrester, commented, "In the face of market correction, enterprises will prioritise function over flair. CFOs will get pulled into more AI deals. Companies will distribute their bets across agentic ecosystems and shift talent around as AI agents take over grunt work. Savvy enterprises will invest in AI governance and AI fluency training to mitigate risk and slowly chart their AI voyage."
Agentlakes and governance
As the AI technology ecosystem remains fragmented, Forrester projects that enterprises will increasingly create composable agent architectures known as "agentlakes." These are designed to manage and orchestrate dispersed AI agent deployments, supporting more complex, multi-agent applications across the business.
In response to emerging global regulations, such as the EU AI Act and a growing patchwork of national legislation, 60% of Fortune 100 companies are expected to appoint dedicated heads of AI governance in 2026. Major corporations including Sony, Bank of America, and UBS have already taken this step. The appointment of these governance roles will be aimed at ensuring compliance across increasingly complex regulatory requirements.
Frederic Giron, VP and senior research director at Forrester, said, "By 2026, CIOs in APAC will shift from proving digital transformation works to amplifying the value it creates. Success will be defined not by the sophistication of their AI models, but by how seamlessly those models are integrated into end-to-end processes to drive both efficiency and growth. The CIOs who thrive will be those who can balance these complex priorities, acting as strategic partners who connect technology investment directly to business outcomes."
Tech leaders face volatility
Forrester's findings suggest technology executives will be under increasing pressure due to a combination of unmet AI expectations, budget scrutiny, and the backdrop of geopolitical instability. These dynamics are expected to shift the responsibilities of chief information officers (CIOs) from supporting operational needs to managing high-stakes strategic initiatives.
One-quarter of CIOs are forecast to be tasked with rescuing business-led AI failures, as the adoption of agentic systems faces issues with user uptake and accuracy errors. Effective governance and scenario planning will be vital for technology leaders to address these challenges.
Another priority highlighted is geopolitical IT asset mapping-already described as a complex area-that will become a top-five strategic focus in 2026. With only 30% of chief executive officers currently having clear visibility into their organisations' exposure to political risk across operations and suppliers, CIOs will need to treat IT architecture as a strategic asset, collaborating across functions to adapt to regulatory changes in different regions.
'Tech debt bankruptcy' and new approaches
Forrester also anticipates that at least one global CIO will declare "tech debt bankruptcy" in 2026, choosing to outsource the management of their entire legacy technology stack. The move would enable that CIO's internal team to work unencumbered on new systems while a third-party provider manages the legacy environment. The approach is predicted to resonate with C-suite leaders seeking to pivot towards modern technology infrastructure.
Mark Mochia, VP, research director at Forrester, noted the increased challenges facing technology leaders in the coming year: "2026 will not be for the faint of heart -or the faint of budget. Technology leaders are about to face a year that's part rollercoaster, part chess match, and part improv comedy. CIOs will get more budget, but also more headaches, more volatility, and more pressure to prove every dollar spent is worth its weight in gold-plated AI chips."
Mochia continued, "First, keep your governance toolkit handy for those surprise AI rescues. Second, learn to speak fluent 'business value ' because your CFO will want more than smoke and mirrors. And finally, embrace the new normal: your workforce will be a mix of humans, bots, and gig workers. Managing this workforce mix will require an increased focus on your teams' leadership skills."
Forrester's predictions suggest a year where functional deployment of AI, careful governance, and adaptability to regulatory and geopolitical shifts will define success for large enterprises, while technology leadership roles will require increased strategic acumen and adaptability.
